[BoulderCouncilHotline] COVID-19 potential futures

[Weaver, Sam]

Fellow Council Members and HOTLINE followers,

Below is a link to a website with a public-domain explanation and simple simulations of the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 (or any infectious disease) as well as the impacts of various containment strategies.  While the simulations available on this site are somewhat simplistic, the various techniques for disease suppression are represented in the simulations, and their general effect can be examined including by changing assumptions for the simulations.  The available assumptions and interventions include rate of infections, different post-infection immunity levels, impacts of social distancing levels, different facial covering effectiveness, different testing and tracing levels, impacts of lockdowns, impacts of increased sanitation, impacts of summer heat on disease spread, ICU capacity, and impacts of vaccines and effective immunity durations.

The COVID-19 Futures public-domain, open-source website is here:  https://ncase.me/covid-19/

Even though the site links to 44 references, I cannot vouch for its accuracy.  For background, here is the link to the bio and publications of the main site author with epidemiology simulation experience (4500 paper citations in 5 years):  https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_wHMGkUAAAAJ&hl=en

I found the site interesting and wanted to share it with the community.  I found the explanation for why widespread masking is a no-regrets policy to be particularly timely.

All the best,

Sam Weaver

[cid:image003.png at 01D62437.27AEB2D0]<http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/>

weavers at bouldercolorado.gov
Phone: 303-416-6130

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: https://webappsprod.bouldercolorado.gov/mailing-lists/mailman-archive/bouldercouncilhotline/attachments/20200507/914f395b/attachment.html 
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.png
Type: image/png
Size: 38010 bytes
Desc: image003.png
Url : https://webappsprod.bouldercolorado.gov/mailing-lists/mailman-archive/bouldercouncilhotline/attachments/20200507/914f395b/attachment.png