[BoulderCouncilHotline] Questions re: crime data

[Speer, Nicole]

Good evening staff, councilmembers, CAC, and Hotline readers.

Below are some questions about the crime data analyses presented in Item 1B on the 3/1 agenda. These crime trends are concerning, and I hope the answers to questions 1-3 in particular will help us clarify and interpret these trends.

Hopefully, the information requested in questions 1-3 are straightforward given the analyses were already done for the presentation. However, it takes staff time to modify slides, so if we are not able to get the information to questions 1-3 for Tuesday's meeting, would CAC please consider rescheduling this presentation until we have the information requested in 1-3 below? Answers to 4-8 are not, in my opinion, necessary to interpret the data.


  1.  The trend lines in the presentation graphs suggest linear regression is being used to explore how crime rates and offenses have changed over time. For each graph, could we please get the following:
     *   reporting on the main effects of both time and pandemic onset (e.g., pre/post April 2020) as well as the interaction of time x pandemic onset
     *   statistical significance of the regression coefficients in the graphs (including whether the significance values correct for the potential lack of independence in the observed data)
     *   effect sizes for the time variable (in particular, the estimated change in number of offenses per year and proportion of variance accounted for would be valuable to know)
  2.  Can we please see analyses and associated graphs for offenses that are normalized for population (e.g., per 100,000 residents as the first couple of graphs present crime data)?
  3.  When jail capacity is considered as a dependent variable with time and a pandemic indicator, what is the statistical significance of the relationship between jail capacity and crime rates?

Questions that would be helpful to have answered at some point:

  1.  Do we know the demographics of crime victims (e.g., race, ethnicity, income, renter/homeowner, age, gender, housing status)?
  2.  Have there been any analyses of correlates with crime rates other than time (and the pandemic)? For example, are there measurable relationships in our local data between crime rates and rates of homelessness, housing costs, rates of poverty, the amount of money that has gone toward policing or human services, or any other factors that may help us understand where we could target interventions?
  3.  Is it possible to provide more historical data and context? If so, how do our rates over the past 5 years compare to 10 years ago? 20 years ago? This context would be helpful both when looking at absolute number of crimes reported as well as crimes reported controlling for population size.
  4.  Was there an analysis run on the impact of the bicycle sting operation on bicycle thefts (e.g., a pre/post analysis similar to the pandemic)?
  5.  What is the recommended course of action?

I greatly appreciate the effort that has gone into compiling these data and running these analyses. Getting to this presentation was no small feat.

Thank you,
Nicole


Nicole Speer, Ph.D.
Boulder City Councilmember
Pronouns: she, her(s), ella

Phone: 303-519-9068

Web: bouldercolorado.gov/person/nicole-speer<https://bouldercolorado.gov/person/nicole-speer>
Twitter: @SpeerBldrCC<https://twitter.com/SpeerBldrCC>

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