[bouldercouncilhotline] Hotline: Issues with 2015 Boulder Community Profile

[cmosupport at bouldercolorado.gov]

Sender: Appelbaum, Matt


While it seems to be quite difficult to find really good jobs data – as I’ve previously noted – I’ve attached census data from 2002 – 2013.  There are some anomalies (at least it appears that way to me), but essentially this data shows that there were approximately 80,000 jobs in the city each year from 2002 – 2007, and then from 2008 – 2013 there have been about 85,000 jobs, with some movement up and down each year.  As we’ve discussed, these totals are less than our city estimates – maybe because the census data doesn’t count everything (such as self-employment, sole proprietors, etc.), maybe because this is just hard to count.  But assuming the census data has been based on the same methodology since 2002, these numbers would seem to at least provide a good indication of job growth during that period.  As such, and even assuming that since 2013 Boulder has added a few thousand jobs (using the census methodology), that still yields a reasonably current census estimate of about 85,000.  That means that over any typical 10-year period up to the present, the rate of job growth per year has been less than .5% (1/2 of 1%).  Looking at just “private employment” (not shown in the attachment), the years 2002 and 2008 were relatively high (a few thousand more than nearby years) at ~66,000+, while in 2013 that had increased very slightly to ~68,000+.   The not-insignificant increase in C/I space in Boulder deserves another look – particularly as to how much of it is really residential, how much might be retail/hotel or other uses that create relatively few jobs per square foot, etc.  Regardless, the census data seems to largely validate our numbers.
--Matt
 
From: Weaver, Sam

Sent: Saturday, August 29, 2015 1:03 PM
To: HOTLINE
Subject: Issues with 2015 Boulder Community Profile

Fellow Council Member,
 
I have a major concern about the 2015 Community Profile which I flagged at the Tuesday study session, and have dug further into.  The jobs trends shown in the 2015 Community Profile make no sense on a simple read. 
The jobs chart shown in the profile indicates that we have lost a net of 300 jobs since 2000, while adding 3 million net new square feet of non-residential buildings in the City.  This is deeply unbelievable, and I do not support including the jobs trend chart in any finished work product the City distributes.  
 
I understand that the job count methodology has changed, and that some number of earlier years have had their figures adjusted with the new methodology.  It is critical to me that the ‘back-casting’ to all prior years with the current methods
(even if an estimate) be done very soon so that we can understand our growth rates as we move through the comp plan process. If it is too time-consuming to adjust the former data, an issue I would like to see discussed with a price and time estimate, I do not feel that the chart should be presented at all, because it does not accurately represent the reality of our trends.  If Council, staff, and the public do not understand how data is gathered and processed, there will be further mistrust in our presentations of growth and development, a result we should try to avoid.  Simply appending a few years of jobs figures using the current counting approach onto a trend line that uses a different counting approach for earlier years makes the trend line deeply suspect, engendering distrust of all of the information.  In the current polarization around growth and development, incomplete or inaccurate information from the City is damaging.  I appreciate establishing a more accurate counting method on which to base our projections, but I do not support showing trend data that is not corrected with the new method.
 
All the best,
 
Sam Weaver
Member of Boulder City Council
weavers at bouldercolorado.gov
Phone: 303-416-6130
 
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