[bouldercouncilhotline] Hotline: Update on statewide transportation issues

[cmosupport at bouldercolorado.gov]

Sender: Appelbaum, Matt

Colleagues – There has been quite a bit of activity regarding the various proposals for a statewide and/or regional transportation tax since my last update on this issue.  The Metro Mayors Caucus continues to be very active, and I serve
 on the MPACT64 committee, which consists of MMC members and representatives from the three county organizations that serve all of the non-metro-Denver counties (Progressive 15, Action 22, and Club 20).  While I haven’t had to make any real decisions yet, I’ll
 describe my general approach to these issues; since it is essential that I correctly represent council, if there are any serious concerns or a desire for the council to discuss this further we’ll put it on a council agenda under Matters.
 
To recap last year’s efforts: MMC and the counties began serious discussions regarding a statewide gas tax increase, preferably indexed to the cost-of-living.  CDOT was actively engaged in this effort.  A parallel effort began to discuss
 the possibility of a Denver-metro transportation district, since the statewide tax would not provide sufficient regional funding to finish FasTracks or construct various highway projects.
 
However, a recent opinion poll strongly indicates that voters will almost certainly not support a gas tax increase, although they are generally supportive of some sort of tax increase for transportation.  Voters also oppose VMT taxes and
 tolls.  However, they seem much more amendable to increases in sales taxes; this appears to be due to voters’ opinions that transportation is a basic need that serves everyone and thus should be paid for via a general tax, and, perhaps, I would guess, because
 the direct taxes on gas/tolls might seem more likely to affect each voter, while sales taxes seem a bit more distant.  It is worth noting that transit polls well throughout the entire state.
 
Whatever the reasons, and even with some skepticism about this sort of poll, particularly one done when voters are not particularly engaged in the issue, both CDOT and the various groups have generally decided that a gas tax isn’t likely
 to be successful and that a sales tax option should be cautiously pursued.  It is also clear that a gas tax is not sustainable for very long, as vehicles continue to get higher mileage and there will be an eventual shift to electric vehicles.  And recent news
 from the federal level and a number of states suggests that gas taxes are very unpopular and sales taxes are widely considered as alternative solutions.  (I’ll add that it sure seems to me that the state legislature could just impose a new gas/fuel fee instead
 of a tax, but I can’t imagine them doing so since it would, alas, be politically impossible.)
 
This raises two obvious questions for all of us.  First, sales taxes clearly compete with city needs; I think it’s likely that Boulder will at some point ask for a sales tax increase again, perhaps for capital projects.  Second, a sales
 tax of course has no relationship to usage of the transportation resource.
 
At a recent MMC meeting the mayors were asked if they were willing to consider continuing to work on the sales tax option, or if was simply unacceptable.  Similar meetings are being held with the county groups.  At the moment, it appears
 that work will continue on this approach, although it is safe to say that there are still many outstanding issues, everyone prefers a gas tax, at least one group thinks that more voter education on a gas tax would help, and we’re a long way from any final
 decisions.
 
So, what might this look like and when might it get on the ballot?
 
First, the timing.  Originally the hope was that this would be ready for this year, 2013.  However there is a very strong effort being made to put an education tax (graduated income tax) on the ballot this year.  That will first require
 the legislature to make significant changes to how schools are financed by the state (something I hope we stay aware of; while the current system is clearly broken, it’s not at all clear how a new system would work and how it would affect BVSD).  And with
 a change to a sales tax approach, the transportation issue has gotten rather more complex.  The thought now is that 2013 is out and 2014 more likely – although if education slips to 2014 then
well, the juggling of ballot issues is an area of considerable speculation,
 and there is much talk of a grand constitutional fix on the 2014 ballot.
 
Second, the details.  CDOT states it “needs” well over $500M/year, but can make important strides with ~$250M/year.  This would be spent on safety and also “congestion relief,” an item that needs more definition but if done well could be
 supported.  (I’d note that CDOT is quite clear that new lanes built to handle congestion must be “managed,” which is to say tolled like our US36 HOT lane.)  In theory any tax ballot issue would include a list of specific projects.
 
However, the general feeling is that if a statewide transportation sales tax passed then it would be very difficult to get additional regional/local transportation taxes passed.  (Hard to know if that would be true in Boulder or not
) 
 Thus current discussions revolve around a higher statewide sales tax – somewhere in the .5% to .7% range – with the revenues being split among CDOT and localities, and with a share for transit (in the range of 25% to 33% at the moment).  Depending on the exact
 splits this would provide CDOT with the ~$250M they need, while also providing significant funds to counties/cities for local needs (~$1.5 - $2M/yearly to Boulder), and also allowing RTD to more-or-less “finish” FasTracks (with the remaining transit dollars
 going to other regional transit agencies and also to CDOT for provision of intercity transit).  Because of this, efforts to create a Denver-metro transportation district are off the table for now.
 
The details of these splits is still unclear; not surprisingly I’ve supported higher shares for transit, and I also got MMC to support the concept that the city shares should not be via the existing HUTF (Highway Users Trust Fund) allocation
 (which gives more money to places that have more lane-miles, among other troubling concepts), but via population.
 
Any such tax would be sunsetted – and there is just no doubt that eventually we’ll need to create a truly sustainable transportation revenue stream, preferably with some combination of user fees (VMT, tolls) and general funds.  Also, as
 a sales tax, the revenue, at least in theory, would not be completely safe from being raided by the legislature, unlike gas taxes which are locked into the HUTF.
 
And, of course, there is the critical issue of what RTD would do with any additional revenue.  Interestingly, at the MMC meeting, the concern over sales taxes in general was rather overwhelmed by concern about RTD.  It is safe to say, however,
 that it would be hard for us to support this unless the NW corridor was finally treated equitably – although the specifics of what that might mean won’t be known until the Northwest Area Mobility Study is completed early next year.
 
I think I’ll end it at that.  There are many more issues at play here, and more detailed information.  But the key question is whether we continue to very cautiously support these efforts, and which concepts/rates/shares/governance concerns/RTD
 issues etc. are most important to us.  I’ve been tentatively supportive, both because I don’t see other good options and because these efforts seem to be moving forward regardless.  And I’ll be quite involved via MPACT64 and other MMC-sponsored meetings I
 attend (or crash, as it were).  But using sales taxes for transportation (which, of course, Boulder does as well), and the many concerns around FasTracks and how both additional transit and highway revenues will be spent – and whether Boulder and our corridor
 will once again get back pennies on our tax dollars – are all reasons for considerable caution.  Again, if there are council concerns or a desire for discussion let me know and we’ll schedule it on our agenda.
 
--Matt